So does Kamala have a chance?

[ElJorge]

I know we’re a bit of an echo chamber here… but REALISTICALLY does she even have a shot of beating Trump? She seems extremely unlikeable and fake, has like three months to win over voters, but never-Trumpers would vote for a used tampon over him.

Just curious on everyone’s thoughts.

[AtiliusRegulus]

Yes. They need it to be close to justify the rigging. If they can get her within 2 pts, she will win. Trump has to maintain a lead of 5+ points in swing states.

[Bush4Ever.]

A super-quick glance at the polls would suggest Trump has a reasonable, but not goofy-huge advantage.

Most of the lines I saw had Trump in and around -200.

The RCP average has Trump at 58.4 percent currently, which basically correlates to the betting odds.

[Alex_Murphy]

I’m terrified. She’s basically already president for the next few months. I wouldn’t be surprised if she nukes Russia.

[thedangerouskitchen]

She has a chance to NOT get completely demolished by a landslide not seen since Reagan's second-term, but does she have a chance to win?

Put it this way: Artman has a better chance losing 200 pounds, quitting drugs, and taking his head out of his ass to vote for Trump than Kamala has of beating Trump.

[kobeunderbite]

She's not the favorite but she has a good chance. Trump has a somewhat capped ceiling due to being hated by 30-40 percent of the country and the Democrats have a more sophisticated mail ballot/voter turnout apparatus than the Republicans. Trump cannot become complacent.

[_Vcsgrizzfan_]

She's not the favorite but she has a good chance. Trump has a somewhat capped ceiling due to being hated by 30-40 percent of the country and the Democrats have a more sophisticated mail ballot/voter turnout apparatus than the Republicans. Trump cannot become complacent.

That's probably close. There is definitely an "Anybody But Trump" faction that would vote for a corpse before Trump. Politics in general are by their nature volatile depending on the last piece of news that gets people's attention. Who commits gaffes that swings just a few percent of voters could make the difference.

[rileymartin]

I don’t think she can win simply because I don’t think the Never Trump crowd will be as energized as they were in 2020…
But, if she picked a non Whack job VP like a Joe Manchin, she could make things interesting…She is not having any problems raising money…

[lettherebehouse]

If the election is fair I don’t see it. Non Trump voters who were already uninspired by Biden to stay home, are even more uninspired by Kamala. She is as unelectable I’ve ever seen in a candidate. I have a feeling unless you’re a black activist - pro black no matter what type, you’ll be sitting this election out.

I got Trump by 3 touchdowns

[_Vcsgrizzfan_]

If the election is fair I don’t see it. Non Trump voters who were already uninspired by Biden to stay home, are even more uninspired by Kamala. She is as unelectable I’ve ever seen in a candidate. I have a feeling unless you’re a black activist - pro black no matter what type, you’ll be sitting this election out.

I got Trump by 3 touchdowns

Place your bet.

[kobeunderbite]

I don’t think she can win simply because I don’t think the Never Trump crowd will be as energized as they were in 2020…
But, if she picked a non Whack job VP like a Joe Manchin, she could make things interesting…She is not having any problems raising money…

Your hardon for Joe Manchin notwithstanding, the VP choice really doesn't move the needle. Kamala had the most liberal record of anyone in the 19-20 primary and people won't forget that just because she picks a moderate veep. Her extremism didn't hurt Biden like Manchin's moderate outlook wouldn't help her.

[_Vcsgrizzfan_]

I don’t think she can win simply because I don’t think the Never Trump crowd will be as energized as they were in 2020…
But, if she picked a non Whack job VP like a Joe Manchin, she could make things interesting…She is not having any problems raising money…

Your hardon for Joe Manchin notwithstanding, the VP choice really doesn't move the needle. Kamala had the most liberal record of anyone in the 19-20 primary and people won't forget that just because she picks a moderate veep. Her extremism didn't hurt Biden like Manchin's moderate outlook wouldn't help her.

I disagree with this somewhat. Many voters just are really ill informed or vote for very peculiar reasons. There's definitely a significant portion of voters who will know that record, but even among those, another issue or topic will be more important to them.

I do agree Veep choices are mostly unimportant. Dan Quayle anyone?

Trump is the favorite, but I would think it's like 60/40 or something not far from that.

[kobeunderbite]

I don’t think she can win simply because I don’t think the Never Trump crowd will be as energized as they were in 2020…
But, if she picked a non Whack job VP like a Joe Manchin, she could make things interesting…She is not having any problems raising money…

Your hardon for Joe Manchin notwithstanding, the VP choice really doesn't move the needle. Kamala had the most liberal record of anyone in the 19-20 primary and people won't forget that just because she picks a moderate veep. Her extremism didn't hurt Biden like Manchin's moderate outlook wouldn't help her.

I disagree with this somewhat. Many voters just are really ill informed or vote for very peculiar reasons. There's definitely a significant portion of voters who will know that record, but even among those, another issue or topic will be more important to them.

I do agree Veep choices are mostly unimportant. Dan Quayle anyone?

Trump is the favorite, but I would think it's like 60/40 or something not far from that.

I don't think what you wrote in any way contradicts what I did, the bottom line is most people already have their snap judgements of Trump and Kamala and the rest will come down to motivation, turnout, fraud, etc. 60/40 unfortunately sounds about right to me.

[_Vcsgrizzfan_]

Your hardon for Joe Manchin notwithstanding, the VP choice really doesn't move the needle. Kamala had the most liberal record of anyone in the 19-20 primary and people won't forget that just because she picks a moderate veep. Her extremism didn't hurt Biden like Manchin's moderate outlook wouldn't help her.

I disagree with this somewhat. Many voters just are really ill informed or vote for very peculiar reasons. There's definitely a significant portion of voters who will know that record, but even among those, another issue or topic will be more important to them.

I do agree Veep choices are mostly unimportant. Dan Quayle anyone?

Trump is the favorite, but I would think it's like 60/40 or something not far from that.

I don't think what you wrote in any way contradicts what I did, the bottom line is most people already have their snap judgements of Trump and Kamala and the rest will come down to motivation, turnout, fraud, etc. 60/40 unfortunately sounds about right to me.

I agree.

[rileymartin]

I don’t think she can win simply because I don’t think the Never Trump crowd will be as energized as they were in 2020…
But, if she picked a non Whack job VP like a Joe Manchin, she could make things interesting…She is not having any problems raising money…

Your hardon for Joe Manchin notwithstanding, the VP choice really doesn't move the needle. Kamala had the most liberal record of anyone in the 19-20 primary and people won't forget that just because she picks a moderate veep. Her extremism didn't hurt Biden like Manchin's moderate outlook wouldn't help her.

I think it can help people forget about the hardcore left wackiness with a guy like Manchin. Kamala will then do her part and spend the next 5 months reminding everyone e that Trump is a criminal and she is used to seeing his ilk in the courtroom…As I said, it’s a long shot , but I think it’s the only shot she has.
If she rolls out an equally lefty whack job like herself, then she is DOA…

[Titan18]

She definitely has a chance. Black voters were getting more and more pro Trump so replacing the 85 year old white guy with her (even though she really isn’t black) will help in that aspect.

The polls will be close, maybe even in her favor until the debate (if the Dems allow one) in which then Trump should take over the lead. Kamala is awful at debating and speaking off the cuff. Yes she can speak clearly and complete sentences unlike Biden but she sounds like she has a 3rd grade level of understanding about most things. Plus that awful cackling. As long as Trump does what he did to Biden and doesn’t go off the wall with the insults and interrupting he will come out the debate as the front runner.

Then republicans just need to turn out to vote, especially in swing states where you know Kamala will already have a +5 advantage from those pristine mail in ballots discovered under a table or in the back of a van at 3 am.

[elmerjfudd]

She definitely has a chance. Black voters were getting more and more pro Trump so replacing the 85 year old white guy with her (even though she really isn’t black) will help in that aspect.

The polls will be close, maybe even in her favor until the debate (if the Dems allow one) in which then Trump should take over the lead. Kamala is awful at debating and speaking off the cuff. Yes she can speak clearly and complete sentences unlike Biden but she sounds like she has a 3rd grade level of understanding about most things. Plus that awful cackling. As long as Trump does what he did to Biden and doesn’t go off the wall with the insults and interrupting he will come out the debate as the front runner.

Then republicans just need to turn out to vote, especially in swing states where you know Kamala will already have a +5 advantage from those pristine mail in ballots discovered under a table or in the back of a van at 3 am.

She has the vote of the black sister but the brothers not as much. Probably even less than Biden

[Offensive]

Yes sadly. Way better than Biden. She's a checkbox jackpot for libs. Can't wait to see all the campaign videos and shirts calling you a traitor, sexist and or racist for not voting for her. Watch there will be an incident with one or more of her campaign headquarters being "vandalized" with racist and misogynist shit scattered all over.

[kobeunderbite]

I

She definitely has a chance. Black voters were getting more and more pro Trump so replacing the 85 year old white guy with her (even though she really isn’t black) will help in that aspect.

The polls will be close, maybe even in her favor until the debate (if the Dems allow one) in which then Trump should take over the lead. Kamala is awful at debating and speaking off the cuff. Yes she can speak clearly and complete sentences unlike Biden but she sounds like she has a 3rd grade level of understanding about most things. Plus that awful cackling. As long as Trump does what he did to Biden and doesn’t go off the wall with the insults and interrupting he will come out the debate as the front runner.

Then republicans just need to turn out to vote, especially in swing states where you know Kamala will already have a +5 advantage from those pristine mail in ballots discovered under a table or in the back of a van at 3 am.

I really hope Trump doesn't debate her. There's almost nothing to gain. She's has an adequate enough command of her talking points to not make a complete idiot of herself and it will further legitimize her as a candidate and allow her to highlight whatever contrasts she chooses to focus on - age, temperament, etc. Trump should say she isn't legitimate and he won't debate her because she didn't win the nomination with votes.

[CleveTown™]

of course she does.

Trump peaked too soon. They will rig it for her.

I made a thread a few days ago and you didnt believe me.

Trump will never be president. EVER again.