Warriors-Celtics

[Sudanese Sensation]

The analytics suggest BOS is the overwhelming favorite. The linesmakers and most "experts" make GSW the favorite. Something has to give.

[Robceltsfan]

Despite GSW's superior shooting abilities....I think we're going to see some 95-90 type games throughout the series.

Golden State is a high-turnover team, so the Celtics need to expose that and get out and run as much as possible (like in game 7 against the Heat). Additionally, there should be more room to operate in the paint against GSW than there was in either of their prior two series.

Andrew Wiggins is the potential wildcard this series. Steph and Klay take up so much attention on the perimeter. If I had to guess, the Celtics are going to make Wiggins and Poole beat them (of course). If the Dubs win the series, I wouldn't be completely surprised to see Wiggins come away with the MVP (lol @ Abe).

[Sudanese Sensation]

Despite GSW's superior shooting abilities....I think we're going to see some 95-90 type games throughout the series.

Golden State is a high-turnover team, so the Celtics need to expose that and get out and run as much as possible (like in game 7 against the Heat). Additionally, there should be more room to operate in the paint against GSW than there was in either of their prior two series.

Andrew Wiggins is the potential wildcard this series. Steph and Klay take up so much attention on the perimeter. If I had to guess, the Celtics are going to make Wiggins and Poole beat them (of course). If the Dubs win the series, I wouldn't be completely surprised to see Wiggins come away with the MVP (lol @ Abe).

The models give BOS a 3 to 4 in 5 chance of winning.

[Robceltsfan]

Despite GSW's superior shooting abilities....I think we're going to see some 95-90 type games throughout the series.

Golden State is a high-turnover team, so the Celtics need to expose that and get out and run as much as possible (like in game 7 against the Heat). Additionally, there should be more room to operate in the paint against GSW than there was in either of their prior two series.

Andrew Wiggins is the potential wildcard this series. Steph and Klay take up so much attention on the perimeter. If I had to guess, the Celtics are going to make Wiggins and Poole beat them (of course). If the Dubs win the series, I wouldn't be completely surprised to see Wiggins come away with the MVP (lol @ Abe).

The models give BOS a 3 to 4 in 5 chance of winning.

Sounds good to me!

However, those models don't take into consideration intangibles such as experience. Like it or not, I believe this is the first time ANY Celtics player has played in the Finals. They're going to make some mistakes.

[Sudanese Sensation]

Despite GSW's superior shooting abilities....I think we're going to see some 95-90 type games throughout the series.

Golden State is a high-turnover team, so the Celtics need to expose that and get out and run as much as possible (like in game 7 against the Heat). Additionally, there should be more room to operate in the paint against GSW than there was in either of their prior two series.

Andrew Wiggins is the potential wildcard this series. Steph and Klay take up so much attention on the perimeter. If I had to guess, the Celtics are going to make Wiggins and Poole beat them (of course). If the Dubs win the series, I wouldn't be completely surprised to see Wiggins come away with the MVP (lol @ Abe).

The models give BOS a 3 to 4 in 5 chance of winning.

Sounds good to me!

However, those models don't take into consideration intangibles such as experience. Like it or not, I believe this is the first time ANY Celtics player has played in the Finals. They're going to make some mistakes.

The ESPN model gives BOS a 61% chance of winning and the 538 model gives BOS a 81% chance of winning. ( From memory)

[Robceltsfan]

Another thing to remember is that the Dubs were rather pedestrian (particularly by their lofty standards) from behind the arc this year. Nobody on Golden State shot over 40% from 3 this year. Both Miami (#1) and the Bucks (#5) shot better from 3 this season than GSW (#8).

We saw what the C's defense did to those teams' 3-point numbers. If they can do the same to GSW, there's a good chance they can come away with the title.

[elmouse03]

Would like to see the celtics win but the warriors have the experience so it's gonna be tough. I sense a 93 finals scenario.

[Bush4Ever.]

I said Warriors in 5 in a relatively noncompetitive series in the other thread, but I would edit that after more thought to thinking it was be meaningfully competitive. Not to-the-wire close, but not a total blowout no matter how many games it goes.

I think Boston can bully and physical the Warriors up defensively while maintaining a ton of versatility.

If there is a current defense that has a shot at slowing them down...it's probably this one.

Edit: I trust Vegas more than I trust 538. Certainly on sports. A model wildly contrary to Vegas lacks face validity to me. Even if the "4 in 10ish or 3 in 8ish" event is the one that happens in our sample size of N = 1.

But playing the 2022 NBA Finals 1000 times...Boston ain't winning 750 of them.

[Sudanese Sensation]

I said Warriors in 5 in a relatively noncompetitive series in the other thread, but I would edit that after more thought to thinking it was be meaningfully competitive. Not to-the-wire close, but not a total blowout no matter how many games it goes.

I think Boston can bully and physical the Warriors up defensively while maintaining a ton of versatility.

If there is a current defense that has a shot at slowing them down...it's probably this one.

Edit: I trust Vegas more than I trust 538. Certainly on sports. A model wildly contrary to Vegas lacks face validity to me. Even if the "4 in 10ish or 3 in 8ish" event is the one that happens in our sample size of N = 1.

But playing the 2022 NBA Finals 1000 times...Boston ain't winning 750 of them.

Just checked. 538 is giving BOS an 80% chance. Nate says he's prohibited from betting by ABC but I doubt he would give a GSW bettor -400 odds.

[AlaskaHawks]

80% prediction for either side seems suspect.

[Sudanese Sensation]

80% prediction for either side seems suspect.

The models takes into consideration strength of schedule and record against common opponents and margin of victory. Those are some of the variables they use.

[vcsgrizzfan]

Despite GSW's superior shooting abilities....I think we're going to see some 95-90 type games throughout the series.

Golden State is a high-turnover team, so the Celtics need to expose that and get out and run as much as possible (like in game 7 against the Heat). Additionally, there should be more room to operate in the paint against GSW than there was in either of their prior two series.

Andrew Wiggins is the potential wildcard this series. Steph and Klay take up so much attention on the perimeter. If I had to guess, the Celtics are going to make Wiggins and Poole beat them (of course). If the Dubs win the series, I wouldn't be completely surprised to see Wiggins come away with the MVP (lol @ Abe).

The models give BOS a 3 to 4 in 5 chance of winning.

I have to admit that I am very surprised by that. I would have thought at worst a draw on the analytics. Cool.

I will still stick with Warriors in 6 though.

[AtiliusRegulus]

i am hoping that the Celts win. I despise the Warriors.

[Kingcarl24]

I'm rooting for the Celtics but the Warriors will for sure blow out the Celtics in Game 1. Everyone will overreact and talk about a sweep and then Boston wins game 2.

My final prediction is Warriors in 6 but the overreaction from people after game 1 will be comical.

[vcsgrizzfan]

I'm rooting for the Celtics but the Warriors will for sure blow out the Celtics in Game 1. Everyone will overreact and talk about a sweep and then Boston wins game 2.

My final prediction is Warriors in 6 but the overreaction from people after game 1 will be comical.

It is incredible how easily some people become "prisoners of the moment".

I was reading an article on the Canadian equivalent of ESPN about a week ago and a generally not so stupid guy was proclaiming that it was time to declare that Connor McDavid is the "best hockey player of all time". He was careful not to call him the greatest of all time, but still. Conor is a helluva player, but there have been a lot of "helluva players" come though the NHL. At this point, he's probably the second best Oiler of all time (behind Gretzky) and maybe even third as a complete player behind also Messier. There is something about the human condition that wants people to believe they are part of something special.

[Robceltsfan]

I'm rooting for the Celtics but the Warriors will for sure blow out the Celtics in Game 1. Everyone will overreact and talk about a sweep and then Boston wins game 2.

My final prediction is Warriors in 6 but the overreaction from people after game 1 will be comical.

Hmmmm....I feel like if anyone gets a blowout in Game 1 it'll be the Celtics. The Dubs have a week's worth of rust to knock off, and the young Celtics should be REALLY hungry.

[Kingcarl24]

I'm rooting for the Celtics but the Warriors will for sure blow out the Celtics in Game 1. Everyone will overreact and talk about a sweep and then Boston wins game 2.

My final prediction is Warriors in 6 but the overreaction from people after game 1 will be comical.

Hmmmm....I feel like if anyone gets a blowout in Game 1 it'll be the Celtics. The Dubs have a week's worth of rust to knock off, and the young Celtics should be REALLY hungry.

I get that but I just have a feeling that those young Celtics might be a little shocked with it being most of their first times. The Warriors will be a bit more ready.

Just a thought and I've been spot on during these playoffs.

[Robceltsfan]

I'm rooting for the Celtics but the Warriors will for sure blow out the Celtics in Game 1. Everyone will overreact and talk about a sweep and then Boston wins game 2.

My final prediction is Warriors in 6 but the overreaction from people after game 1 will be comical.

Hmmmm....I feel like if anyone gets a blowout in Game 1 it'll be the Celtics. The Dubs have a week's worth of rust to knock off, and the young Celtics should be REALLY hungry.

I get that but I just have a feeling that those young Celtics might be a little shocked with it being most of their first times. The Warriors will be a bit more ready.

Just a thought and I've been spot on during these playoffs.

Gentleman's bet?

1-week avatar bet on a double digit victory? You take the Dubs, I take the C's? Single-digit win is a draw.

[Kingcarl24]

Hmmmm....I feel like if anyone gets a blowout in Game 1 it'll be the Celtics. The Dubs have a week's worth of rust to knock off, and the young Celtics should be REALLY hungry.

I get that but I just have a feeling that those young Celtics might be a little shocked with it being most of their first times. The Warriors will be a bit more ready.

Just a thought and I've been spot on during these playoffs.

Gentleman's bet?

1-week avatar bet on a double digit victory? You take the Dubs, I take the C's? Single-digit win is a draw.

Ummmmm sure.

I do want the Celtics to win but I'll take the bet.

[Robceltsfan]

I get that but I just have a feeling that those young Celtics might be a little shocked with it being most of their first times. The Warriors will be a bit more ready.

Just a thought and I've been spot on during these playoffs.

Gentleman's bet?

1-week avatar bet on a double digit victory? You take the Dubs, I take the C's? Single-digit win is a draw.

Ummmmm sure.

I do want the Celtics to win but I'll take the bet.