It's OVER!

[AtiliusRegulus]

[kobeunderbite]

[Bush4Ever.]

It seems counterintuitive, but a major uptick in a binary outcome (Harris or Trump winning the EC) actually doesn't need to correspond heavily to major shifts in within-state voting, in a winner-take-all dynamic within-state.

A bunch of states flipping from "just barely Harris" to "just barely Trump" would cause a big swing in the probabilistic estimation of the outcome, but also be (at least potentially) highly volatile.

Of course, it could reflect substantial advantages in those states as well. I hope it is. Harris is such a shit candidate.

The debate will be a biggie, IMO. Some debates really don't matter, but I think this one might.

[AtiliusRegulus]

That’s some serious propaganda

[kobeunderbite]

It seems counterintuitive, but a major uptick in a binary outcome (Harris or Trump winning the EC) actually doesn't need to correspond heavily to major shifts in within-state voting, in a winner-take-all dynamic within-state.

A bunch of states flipping from "just barely Harris" to "just barely Trump" would cause a big swing in the probabilistic estimation of the outcome, but also be (at least potentially) highly volatile.

Of course, it could reflect substantial advantages in those states as well. I hope it is. Harris is such a shit candidate.

The debate will be a biggie, IMO. Some debates really don't matter, but I think this one might.

I think she's cooked assuming there is no rigging. Why would she be travelling to Minnesota, New Hampshire, etc? It's not just for shits and giggles. CNN this morning has them within the margin of error everywhere but Wisconsin and they were off by an average of 7 in favor of Democrats in 2020.

I see the debate running very similarly to the Kamala-Pence debate where both sides claim victory, nothing like the Biden debacle. Kamala will have her talking points regarding every topic ready to go and they will be more polished than they were for the Bash interview, and she will also come prepared with girlboss yes queen one-liners designed to be shared on social media. Trump for his part will say the same things he always does in terms of policy, while calling Kamala a marxist who lied about working at McDonalds, got Americans killed in Afghanistan and accomplished nothing as border czar or VP.

[Bush4Ever.]

I think she's cooked assuming there is no rigging. Why would she be travelling to Minnesota, New Hampshire, etc? It's not just for shits and giggles. CNN this morning has them within the margin of error everywhere but Wisconsin and they were off by an average of 7 in favor of Democrats in 2020.

Bovada has Trump at -115. If you really believe its a done deal, make some money and make a meaningful bet.

I found what I think is the original source for the data/forecast in the tweet:
https://www.natesilver.net/p/theres-no- ... s-election

I just skimmed it, but I think its a pretty good one, and tends to line up with my personal feelings, although I haven't studied this nearly at the same level of depth he has.

[kobeunderbite]

I think she's cooked assuming there is no rigging. Why would she be travelling to Minnesota, New Hampshire, etc? It's not just for shits and giggles. CNN this morning has them within the margin of error everywhere but Wisconsin and they were off by an average of 7 in favor of Democrats in 2020.

Bovada has Trump at -115. If you really believe its a done deal, make some money and make a meaningful bet.

I found what I think is the original source for the data/forecast in the tweet:
https://www.natesilver.net/p/theres-no- ... s-election

I just skimmed it, but I think its a pretty good one, and tends to line up with my personal feelings, although I haven't studied this nearly at the same level of depth he has.

The odds aren't stronger for Trump because they are correctly taking rigging into consideration. My outward confidence is assuming an all-else equal election, but the possibility of another steal is the elephant in the room. Even now the depths of the fraud in 2020 continue to unfold with Fulton County's continued refusal to produce the unsealed ballots.

I don't discount the possibility that it will be stolen again but there is no (literally 0) way Kamala can otherwise win.

[Bush4Ever.]

It's amazing how quickly confidence fades when you have to actually put something tangible on the line.

[kobeunderbite]

Why would someone think that fraud on the scale of 2020 cannot be repeated lol? It will be more difficult because of the drop in mail voting but if anything 2020 could have conceivably been a dry run. There has been no meaningful legislation passed since then to protect election integrity (the proof of citizenship stuff is a drop in the bucket).

Kamala is about +3 or +4 nationally where Biden was +7 or more at this point in the cycle in 2020, a race which fraud handed him with extremely thin margins in the EC. This race right now between Kamala and Trump is not close and I mean that. Gambling on Trump right now is a gamble that the election can't be stolen, not a gamble that Trump is a stronger candidate than Kamala which is completely evident.

[Bush4Ever.]

"If Trump wins, he wins, if he loses it was stolen" is simply a psychological protection mechanism and is extremely "ick" to use the modern vernacular.

Frankly, I'm respecting Trump more than people who go for that line of thinking, since that line of thinking implies Trump is an actual cuckold who got openly and repeatedly cuckolded by an 80 year old with dementia, and (in the future), a wine Aunt.

[kobeunderbite]

Well no one gives Biden or Kamala the credit here, Trump is battling the most powerful political entity in American history. The name on the ballot hardly matters in the grand scheme.

Trump has completely adopted this mentality himself by the way so I'm not sure why you're making a distinction there. Even in his podcast with Lex Fridman yesterday, which is the most recent interview Trump has done, Lex gave Trump a layup question on 2020 where Trump could have easily said "I'm just focused on this election, I think we're going to win," but Trump doubled down again and literally said "the election was a fraud" and went on to describe the ways in which fraud can be prevented (paper ballots, voter ID, same day voting) - none of which have been implemented.

[rileymartin]

The worst part of all of this is, Trumpy’s and Republicans can’t simply take responsibility for losing.
When Trump did t win an Emmy it was rigged…when Cruz beat him in Iowa in 2016 it was rigged…when he didn’t win by a bigger margin 2016 it was rigged…Most intelligent people see through this at some point, but Republicans aren’t very bright.
I just hope that these idiots didn’t elect Harris because they were so insistent on sticking with a loser like Trump…

[Shill Jackson]

I think she's cooked assuming there is no rigging. Why would she be travelling to Minnesota, New Hampshire, etc? It's not just for shits and giggles. CNN this morning has them within the margin of error everywhere but Wisconsin and they were off by an average of 7 in favor of Democrats in 2020.

Bovada has Trump at -115. If you really believe its a done deal, make some money and make a meaningful bet.

I found what I think is the original source for the data/forecast in the tweet:
https://www.natesilver.net/p/theres-no- ... s-election

I just skimmed it, but I think its a pretty good one, and tends to line up with my personal feelings, although I haven't studied this nearly at the same level of depth he has.

The odds aren't stronger for Trump because they are correctly taking rigging into consideration. My outward confidence is assuming an all-else equal election, but the possibility of another steal is the elephant in the room. Even now the depths of the fraud in 2020 continue to unfold with Fulton County's continued refusal to produce the unsealed ballots.

I don't discount the possibility that it will be stolen again but there is no (literally 0) way Kamala can otherwise win.

“another steal”




Literally what would have been the greatest conspiracy of all time, and yet absolutely ZERO empirical evidence, and absolutely ZERO defectors.

[rileymartin]

Bovada has Trump at -115. If you really believe its a done deal, make some money and make a meaningful bet.

I found what I think is the original source for the data/forecast in the tweet:
https://www.natesilver.net/p/theres-no- ... s-election

I just skimmed it, but I think its a pretty good one, and tends to line up with my personal feelings, although I haven't studied this nearly at the same level of depth he has.

The odds aren't stronger for Trump because they are correctly taking rigging into consideration. My outward confidence is assuming an all-else equal election, but the possibility of another steal is the elephant in the room. Even now the depths of the fraud in 2020 continue to unfold with Fulton County's continued refusal to produce the unsealed ballots.

I don't discount the possibility that it will be stolen again but there is no (literally 0) way Kamala can otherwise win.

“another steal”




Literally what would have been the greatest conspiracy of all time, and yet absolutely ZERO empirical evidence, and absolutely ZERO defectors.

“…But, but, but the Emmy’s you see…”

[xer0]

It amazes me how any person could be dumb enough to vote for Kackala Harris, she's a complete idiot, doesn't even know how to buy a bag of chips in a store and her policies are going to drain the middle class even more by increasing taxes to pay for nonsensical social programs and illegals.

She's an empty suit that can't answer a question directly and you can see the fakeness of her literally every time she's asked a semi tough question. She's a complete joke and she will be rejected by the American people.

[Alex_Murphy]

It amazes me how any person could be dumb enough to vote for Kackala Harris, she's a complete idiot, doesn't even know how to buy a bag of chips in a store and her policies are going to drain the middle class even more by increasing taxes to pay for nonsensical social programs and illegals.

She's an empty suit that can't answer a question directly and you can see the fakeness of her literally every time she's asked a semi tough question. She's a complete joke and she will be rejected by the American people.

What would you say if Artman came out and said he voted for Kamala?

[kobeunderbite]

[elartman1973]

Imagine supporting either candidate.

Fucking pawns

[ElJorge]

Imagine supporting either candidate.

Fucking pawns

She’s your Queen

[elartman1973]

Imagine supporting either candidate.

Fucking pawns

She’s your Queen

Seek help for your obvious substance abuse