Australian Open 2024

[kobeunderbite]

Starting this early to celebrate and perhaps discuss the return of one Rafael Nadal in Brisbane

[kobeunderbite]

Just seeing Rafa compete today was such a joy and blessing. Too small a sample size to draw any conclusions but that's as good as you could have hoped for after a year on the shelf.

[vcsgrizzfan]

You mean the Novak Djokovic invitational?

[kobeunderbite]

You mean the Novak Djokovic invitational?

The very same. He has generously decided to once again attempt to inject some intrigue into the event by faking a new injury!

[vcsgrizzfan]

You mean the Novak Djokovic invitational?

The very same. He has generously decided to once again attempt to inject some intrigue into the event by faking a new injury!

I chuckled. He is a true warrior attempting to play through that devastating wrist injury. Truly remarkable! We are blessed.

[Odogg]

Go Rafa! Tired of Djoker

[AlaskaHawks]

When is Rogers next match?

[Odogg]

When is Rogers next match?

He’s playing Sampras this weekend

[kobeunderbite]

Rafa hurt again. That was fast

[kobeunderbite]

Rafa out of the AO with a microtear in his hip. At face value that sounds quite bad, but from my perspective, it actually speaks to Rafa's belief in his ability to fight for titles later in the season. If this were just a farewell tour he could certainly play and lose at the AO with a "micro tear" given he has played through genuine tears in the past. But given how good his ballstriking looked this week he is taking the cautious route with an eye towards peaking for Roland Garros and the Olympics. Obviously it's not ideal that he couldn't play a three hour match without tearing something but in retrospect it's not surprising at all that he is skipping AO, tear or no tear, it's a big risk playing five set tennis so soon off the shelf.

[vcsgrizzfan]

Hey KUB. I bust your chops about Nadal on the regular (just in good fun as I'm sure you know), but I'm truly disappointed he has had this hopefully minor setback. I'd like to see him healthy and back in form for the Rafa Nadal invitational at Roland Garros.

[kobeunderbite]

Hey KUB. I bust your chops about Nadal on the regular (just in good fun as I'm sure you know), but I'm truly disappointed he has had this hopefully minor setback. I'd like to see him healthy and back in form for the Rafa Nadal invitational at Roland Garros.

He is writing checks his body can't cash. Really he has been held together by scotch tape since COVID. He managed to numb his foot to win RG 2020/2022, and the time away allowed him to snipe AO 2022, but otherwise it has been one issue after another, and everything really went to hell starting with the Fritz QF at Wimbledon. Shame because the ballstriking and ability is clearly still there.

[kobeunderbite]

All according to plan so far.

Not buying Sinner's chances here. Despite the straightforward scoreline he actually had fewer receiving points won than Rublev, not an encouraging sign. Meanwhile despite the set lost, Djokovic more than doubled Fritz in receiving points, indicating a beatdown dragged out by poor break point conversion from Djokovic.

The only guy with any chance at all is Alcaraz, and to make those chances meaningful he would need to first clean up Zverev and Medvedev in straightforward fashion over the next couple of rounds. Then I would say he has a serious chance here. Otherwise Novak all the way again.

Ladies side is an unmitigated disaster.

[_Vcsgrizzfan_]

Very surprised Alcaraz spit the bit against Zverev. Definitely didn't see that one coming. Probably 85% chance Novak adds another trophy now.

[Alex_Murphy]

Very surprised Alcaraz spit the bit against Zverev. Definitely didn't see that one coming. Probably 85% chance Novak adds another trophy now.

Why are you such a diva bro

[kobeunderbite]

Very surprised Alcaraz spit the bit against Zverev. Definitely didn't see that one coming. Probably 85% chance Novak adds another trophy now.

I hadn't been watching much at all, but had been paying close attention to the dominance ratio of all of the top players, which is the ratio of receiving points won to receiving points lost. It's not the best predictor but it can speak to what kind of form the players are in - for example, at USO 2021, it foreshadowed Medvedev's 'surprising' victory over Djokovic in the Final, as his dominance ratio had been leaps and bounds ahead of Djokovic's.

Alcaraz was way ahead of the pack, somewhere around 2.0, with Djokovic and Sinner a tier down at about 1.55. I didn't even bother checking Zverev because with his scorelines being so tight, he looked sure to lose yesterday. But he came out and served at like 90% which he hadn't come close to in the tournament to date, and saved his best tennis for the right time. Alcaraz for his part had zero plan B, not unlike his loss vs. Medvedev in the US Open semi. I think Alcaraz wins handily had Zverev served like he had in the previous rounds, but he peaked and Alcaraz had no answer, bad luck or not, that's on Alcaraz.

I don't think Zverev has it in him to repeat the performance in the semi final, let alone the final. So he probably just eliminated the best chance we had to see an upset over Djokovic, clearing the path, not that Djokovic needed it in all likelihood.

As for Alcaraz, he will be fine, but no titles since Wimbledon is a bad look and he is burdened with big three level expectations. He has years to put it together and become truly consistently dominant, but he's not close yet. He really needs to learn how to play a little more intelligently, too often it's pace or dropshots with nothing in between. In the case of the Zverev match, his ball was finding its way right into Zverev's strike zone, but we saw very little slicing or moonballing attempts to break Zverev's rhythm. He has to be willing to suffer to win matches, not just with 'wow' factor. And what's probably worse, he has gotten pretty arrogant and big headed. In a presser the other day, someone asked him about Rod Laver saying it would take a miracle to defeat Djokovic. Alcaraz said jokingly, "my name is miracle." Before the tournament he was talking about how much he wanted to face Djokovic in the final. For all of the comparisons to Nadal, you would *never* hear Rafa talking in those terms or looking ahead of his next round, next opponent. It's disrespectful and speaks to a lack of focus.

[_Vcsgrizzfan_]

Very surprised Alcaraz spit the bit against Zverev. Definitely didn't see that one coming. Probably 85% chance Novak adds another trophy now.

I hadn't been watching much at all, but had been paying close attention to the dominance ratio of all of the top players, which is the ratio of receiving points won to receiving points lost. It's not the best predictor but it can speak to what kind of form the players are in - for example, at USO 2021, it foreshadowed Medvedev's 'surprising' victory over Djokovic in the Final, as his dominance ratio had been leaps and bounds ahead of Djokovic's.

Alcaraz was way ahead of the pack, somewhere around 2.0, with Djokovic and Sinner a tier down at about 1.55. I didn't even bother checking Zverev because with his scorelines being so tight, he looked sure to lose yesterday. But he came out and served at like 90% which he hadn't come close to in the tournament to date, and saved his best tennis for the right time. Alcaraz for his part had zero plan B, not unlike his loss vs. Medvedev in the US Open semi. I think Alcaraz wins handily had Zverev served like he had in the previous rounds, but he peaked and Alcaraz had no answer, bad luck or not, that's on Alcaraz.

I don't think Zverev has it in him to repeat the performance in the semi final, let alone the final. So he probably just eliminated the best chance we had to see an upset over Djokovic, clearing the path, not that Djokovic needed it in all likelihood.

As for Alcaraz, he will be fine, but no titles since Wimbledon is a bad look and he is burdened with big three level expectations. He has years to put it together and become truly consistently dominant, but he's not close yet. He really needs to learn how to play a little more intelligently, too often it's pace or dropshots with nothing in between. In the case of the Zverev match, his ball was finding its way right into Zverev's strike zone, but we saw very little slicing or moonballing attempts to break Zverev's rhythm. He has to be willing to suffer to win matches, not just with 'wow' factor. And what's probably worse, he has gotten pretty arrogant and big headed. In a presser the other day, someone asked him about Rod Laver saying it would take a miracle to defeat Djokovic. Alcaraz said jokingly, "my name is miracle." Before the tournament he was talking about how much he wanted to face Djokovic in the final. For all of the comparisons to Nadal, you would *never* hear Rafa talking in those terms or looking ahead of his next round, next opponent. It's disrespectful and speaks to a lack of focus.

I agree with almost all of that and appreciate the extra insights I had no idea about. Like you, I just can't believe Zverev doesn't get into his own way and manages to pull this off. He's just shit the bed too many times at key times to believe he can win two more huge matches.

I am rooting for Novak to pull it off. I know you aren't. I like the thought of witnessing greatness and I'd love to see him get the slam record to something goofy like 30 or so. Imagine the equivalent of 7 grand slams and a few extra majors just for the fun of it.

[kobeunderbite]

Novak lost that one a hell of a lot more than Sinner won it. Called it his worst match he can remember in the press conference. Looked like a college player in the first two sets. As they say consistency is one of the first things to betray these guys sometimes before their body parts.

[Shill Jackson]

You mean the Novak Djokovic invitational?

The very same. He has generously decided to once again attempt to inject some intrigue into the event by faking a new injury!

I chuckled. He is a true warrior attempting to play through that devastating wrist injury. Truly remarkable! We are blessed.

Joker placed over a barrel. It’s the Russian’s to lose.

[kobeunderbite]

Medvedev did well to take the first two sets but the court time caught up with him. Would call that more a bodily failure than a choke.

It seems the new era is officially upon us with Alcaraz and Sinner now established slam champions and Djokovic having taken a step back. Would not put it past Novak to win more slams but his aura is definitely dimmed right now. Of course I hope Rafa will have a Roland Garros swan song but otherwise the clear favorite at RG is Alcaraz imo.

It will be interesting to see who has the better career between Alcaraz and Sinner. For my money Alcaraz is a clearly more talented ballstriker but Sinner has a height advantage, is clearly better at applying strategy, Alcaraz always seems to just be improvising, and Sinner also is showing better shot tolerance in long rallies. All a big part of sustained success.